Power Rankings: Why your team won’t win the World Series

San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies

By Casey Boguslaw

Everyone has a power ranking. This is a different kind of power ranking. Each week until a champion is crowned, I will rank the teams in order of how likely they are to win the World Series. However, I will offer reasons on why they WILL NOT win it all. The majority of my reasoning will be based on how each team performed the previous week. The previous week will not be the only thing used for the rankings. The Brewers and Yankees both went 1-5 during the last week but no one would say the Brew Crew has the same odds as the Yanks of lifting the trophy in October. The list will finish with my current prediction of which teams will make the playoffs. The final spot will go to the team that I believe is playing the best right now and has the most likely chance of winning it all. With that said, I will still give a reason, shown in this week’s play, why that team WON’T. Let’s get started! Oh yeah, be ready for lots and lots of numbers.

TEAMS THAT SOLD (OR SHOULD HAVE)

Colorado Rockies (2-5 on the week; 2-1 vs Washington, 0-4 vs New York Mets) – 36 hits over the week was the second lowest in the league (the Astros had 27 but played TWO fewer games). The team had six errors over the week as well. New leadoff hitter Jose Reyes was 5/22 with two caught stealings over the week. Tragic Number (amount of losses or wins by current leader until eliminated from playoffs) = 33 (division)

Milwaukee Brewers (1-5; 1-2 vs St. Louis, 0-3 vs Chicago Cubs) – Only 37 hits during the week along with a 4/29 with runners in scoring position. Held off the Rockies due to at least one win against a current playoff team. Tragic Number = 30 (wildcard)

San Diego Padres (2-4; 0-3 vs Philadelphia, 2-1 vs Cincinnati) – Getting swept at home by the team with the worst record is rock bottom. The Fathers did hit in that series – 29 hits, but only five were for extra bases. James Shields with two rough starts over the week including allowing three homers against the Phils. Tragic Number = 38 (division)

Cincinnati Reds (3-4; 1-2 vs Arizona, 1-2 vs San Diego, 1-0 vs Los Angeles Dodgers) – A lot of criticism was given to the Reds for not selling more before the deadline. I’m not sure if selling wouldn’t have made the team better – In the series with the Dbacks, Brandon Phillips went 3/12, Todd Frazier went 1/13 and Jay Bruce went 2/12. Tragic Number = 36 (wildcard)

SOME IMPROVED PLAY BUT STILL GOING NOWHERE

26. Boston Red Sox (2-3; 2-1 vs Detroit, 0-2 vs Miami) – The big free agent signees – Pablo Sandoval goes 1/14 over the week and Hanley Ramirez hasn’t played since Friday. Boston also lost their closer, Koji Uehara over the week and has not had luck finding a replacement. Junichi Tazawa blew two saves this week. Tragic Number = 39 (wildcard)

25. Miami Marlins (3-2; 1-2 vs Atlanta, 2-0 vs Boston) – Four different Marlin relievers allowed two earned runs in a single outing this week. Tragic Number = 32 (division)

24. Philadelphia Phillies (4-2; 3-0 vs San Diego, 1-2 vs Arizona) – Pitching was to be assumed to be the weakness after trading staff ace Cole Hamels. Aaron Harang allowing eight earned and David Buchanan allowing eleven displayed that weakness. Tragic Number = 31 (division)

23. Oakland Athletics (3-3; 3-0 vs Houston, 0-3 vs Toronto) – Not a bad week as they swept the division leaders. Toronto put them back in reality. The Astros hit 3/22 with RISP against the Blue Jays and used Jays cast-off Doubront in mop-up duty on Wednesday. Tragic Number = 38 (wildcard)

22. Atlanta Braves (2-3; 2-1 vs Miami, 0-2 vs Tampa Bay) – A short week (5 games) with solid play does not allow many poor trends to appear. Finishing the week with a losing streak is not ideal. Julio Teheran will attempt to start the new week with a Stop. He has allowed 14 runs in 25 innings (5.04 ERA) in previous four Stop attempts this season. Tragic Number = 37 (division)

SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE – the parity of the AL allows these teams to *think* they still have a shot

21. Detroit Tigers (2-4; 1-2 vs Boston, 1-2 vs Kansas City) – The Tigers were 9/51 (.176) with RISP on the week. No one misses Miguel Cabrera more than Victor Martinez, who had a 5/23 week. Tragic Number = 45 (wildcard)

20. Chicago White Sox (3-3; 0-3 vs Kansas City, 3-0 vs Los Angeles Angels) – The White Sox moved to 0-6 at Kauffman Stadium on the season (3-10 overall against Kansas City). Despite what Hawk Harrelson says, the White Sox are not in the same league as the Royals right now. Tragic Number = 45 (wildcard)

19. Cleveland Indians (4-2; 2-1 vs Minnesota, 2-1 vs New York Yankees) – The Indians hit the heck out of the ball this week – 86 hits in six contests for an average of 14+ per game. How do you still lose two games with that kind of offense? Allowing 18 earned in those two contests. Tragic Number = 43 (wildcard)

18. Seattle Mariners (4-2; 2-1 vs Texas, 2-1 vs Baltimore) – Four wins against teams vying for playoff contention is a good week for a team that is more than likely out of it. Robinson Cano only getting two RBIs over the week remains a big problem. Tragic Number = 42 (wildcard)

ACTUALLY HAVE A CHANCE, ALBEIT SMALL

17. Arizona Diamondbacks (4-2; 2-1 vs Cincinnati, 2-1 vs Philadelphia) – The inconsistency of the Diamondbacks shown in this week is a microcosm of the season. Averaged 15+ hits in the final four games of the week but only had eleven Friday and Saturday combined. Tragic Number = 42 (division)

16. Texas Rangers (2-4; 1-2 vs Seattle, 1-2 vs Minnesota) – Adrian Beltre having a poor season and has not contributed to a surprising Rangers team – one wonders where they would be with last year’s numbers from Beltre. He went 5/24 over the week. Tragic Number = 46 (wildcard)

15. Tampa Bay Rays (4-1; 2-1 vs New York Mets, 2-0 vs Atlanta) – Closer Brad Boxberger contributed to his own blown save with an error which may have prevented a sweep of the hot New York Mets. Tragic Number = 47 (wildcard)

14. Minnesota Twins (3-3; 1-2 vs Cleveland, 2-1 vs Texas) – A .500 season is better than most predicted for the Twinkies. That’s what they did this week and that’s where they find themselves now. Unfortunately for Minnesota, if the trend holds a .500 season will not get them into the playoffs. Tragic Number = 46 (wildcard)

COULD MAKE SOME NOISE…IF THEY GET IN

13. Washington Nationals (2-5; 1-2 vs Colorado, 1-2 vs Los Angeles Dodgers, 0-1 vs San Francisco) – With only ten teams making the playoffs, few would have predicted that the Nats would be 13th in any rankings at this point in the season. The team no longer has injuries to blame for a poor week. Jason Werth is back in the everyday lineup but that may a part of the problem as he had a 3/22 stretch. A lot of focus was given to Drew Storen being upset at the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon – it’s showing, Storen with 6 ER over the week. Tragic Number = 44 (division)

12. San Francisco Giants (2-4; 0-3 vs Chicago Cubs, 1-1 vs Houston, 1-0 vs Washington) – Out of the six games in the past week, starting pitchers only advanced past the fifth inning twice. It’s Madison Bumgarner and everyone else right now and that has to change for any hope of a repeat champion. Tragic Number = 46 (division)

11. Los Angeles Angels (3-4; 2-1 vs Baltimore, 0-3 vs Chicago White Sox, 1-0 vs Kansas City) – An 0 -26 stretch of hitting with RISP was awful against the White Sox. They at least ended the streak with style in a comeback against the vaunted Royals bullpen. Tragic Number = 51 (wildcard) *current wildcard

MY SURPRISE PLAYOFF TEAM

10. Baltimore Orioles (2-4; 1-2 vs Los Angeles Angels, 1-2 vs Seattle Mariners) – Being no hit obviously highlights any conversation of poor play during the week. Starting pitching still remains the long-term concern as three starters allow 4+ ER in one rotation this week. Tragic Number = 47 (wildcard)

ONCE YOU’RE IN, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN, BUT

9. New York Yankees (1-5; 0-3 vs Toronto, 1-2 vs Cleveland) – Any week that one gives up a division lead, especially with one as large as the Yankees had at points this season is a downer. The offense may be finally showing its age with only 36 hits on the week and 6/34 with RISP (.176). Tragic Number = 54 (wc) *current wildcard

SO HOT RIGHT NOW

8. New York Mets (5-2; 1-2 vs Tampa, 4-0 vs Colorado) – With as hot as the Mets are right now, the two one-run losses to Tampa have to be disappointing. Have to keep taking advantage of a struggling Washington team. Tragic Number = 53 (division) *current division leader

7. Chicago Cubs (6-0; 3-0 vs San Francisco, 3-0 vs Milwaukee) – One of two teams to go undefeated on the week covered makes it hard to nitpick on any issues. The Cubs tendency to strikeout is what I’ll go with – 43 Ks over the week gives a 7+ average per game). Tragic Number = 54 (wildcard) *current wildcard

THE CANDIDATES

6. Houston Astros (1-4; 0-3 vs Oakland, 1-1 vs San Francisco) – The Astros did not have a fun trip to the Bay. They hit 2/25 with RISP and Carlos Gomez was only 2/18 on the trip. The Astros are now 11 games below .500 on the road and losing any home-field advantage they may need in the playoffs. Tragic Number = 52 (division) *current division leader

5. Los Angeles Dodgers (2-5; 0-3 vs Pittsburgh, 2-1 vs Washington, 0-1 vs Cincinnati) – I’ve covered the Dodgers this week and discussed that the biggest problems seem to be the new acquisitions. Adrian Gonzalez, not a new acquisition, but is also struggling – 6/30 on the week including 1 for his last 15. Tragic Number = 51 (division) *current division leader

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (4-2; 3-0 vs Los Angeles Dodgers, 1-2 vs St. Louis) – The Pirates are playing just as strong as anyone in the league but the Cardinals remain the thorn in their side. They had the rotation set right (Locke, Liriano, Cole) but could only take one against the red birds. A sweep would have at least raised hopes but right now it looks like, at best, they will be facing another one-game playoff. Tragic Number = 56 (wildcard) *current wildcard

3. Kansas City Royals (5-2; 3-0 vs Chicago White Sox, 2-1 vs Detroit, 0-1 vs Los Angeles Angels) – Full disclosure, I finished the first draft of this article last night and had the Royals pegged for #2. I had them marked as a 6-1 week as they were handling the Angels as I closed up shop for the night. The reason I moved them down is the sudden bullpen implosion from what was once thought as an impenetrable force. The Royals had won 111 games in a row where they had a lead after 7 innings. They have now lost two in a row. Sound the alarms! Tragic Number = 59 (wildcard) *current division leader

2. St. Louis Cardinals (4-2; 2-1 vs Milwaukee, 2-1 vs Pittsburgh) – With the devil’s magic it’s easy to cover up any flaws you may have. I don’t want to choose the Cardinals as my NL representative most likely to win the World Series, but it’s hard to deny them. Lance Lynn tried to toll the bullpen Thursday night but Tyler Lyons came out in mop-up duty and threw 5+ scoreless. Ho-hum, the beat goes on. Tragic Number = 61 (wildcard) *current division leader

1. Toronto Blue Jays (6-0; 3-0 vs New York Yankees, 3-0 vs Oakland) – Even the Cardinals can’t keep the surging Jays out of the top spot. Based on this week, it’s hard to argue that the Blue Jays aren’t the odds on favorite to win it all. Their offense is terrifying but it’s the pitching that had a great week. If there is a concern it’s Edwin Encarnacion’s health as he was held to a 1/8 week and he missed the last four games. The Blue Jays will want him back for what looks like their first trip to the postseason in over two decades.

Casey Boguslaw is a featured writer for Call to the Bullpen. You can find him on Twitter @CaseyBoguslaw, or join in the conversation @CTBPod, in the comment section below or on our Facebook page.

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